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Alex Smolin

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#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Bayesian Intelligence from the Outside

Inferring intelligence from observable behavior is a foundational challenge in artificial intelligence. We develop a theory of Bayesian intelligence for agents such as language models. Each prompt induces a possibly imperfect internal experiment; the agent updates a full-support prior by Bayes'rule and faithfully repor...

Alex Smolin, Bryan Wilder · 0 citations
#artificial intelligence Preprint Sep 2026

Beliefs and Behavior in Language Models

There is significant uncertainty about whether abstractions like beliefs or desires usefully describe the behavior of large language models (LLMs). In addition to the inherent scientific interest of this question, these latent quantities are often invoked to explain the behavior of LLMs to users or to define and evalua...

Alex Smolin, Bryan Wilder · 0 citations

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