In open-ended generation, LLMs frequently fall into the "likelihood trap", characterized by repetitive degeneration and vocabulary dullness, resulting in a discrepancy between machine-generated and human-written text. While post-hoc tail truncation (e.g., Top-p, Min-p) avoids sampling from the unreliable tail, it can misalign generation with human lexical preferences by over-sampling from the uncalibrated head; fixed scalar repetition penalties, in turn, ignore how the scale of the logit distribution varies across inference steps, which can disrupt semantic coherence. To address both shortcomings, we propose Variance-Calibrated Modulation (VCM), a training-free pre-decoding intervention. VCM directly reshapes the probability distribution prior to truncation via two dynamic mechanisms: (1) Contextual Searchlight via PMI, which naturally suppresses global stopwords and elevates context-evoked tokens, and (2) Adaptive Self-Debiasing, which utilizes real-time logit standard deviation to provide scale-invariant penalization. In experiments across open-ended generation, factual QA, and mathematical reasoning, we show that VCM consistently mitigates the likelihood trap. With negligible computational overhead, VCM integrates with existing decoding strategies, improving diversity and coherence and, particularly at higher decoding temperatures, reasoning accuracy. Our code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/AetherDing/VCM
Language models encounter typos, corrupted text, altered words, and disrupted token order, yet robustness is usually evaluated only through output behavior. We study how six naturalistic and synthetic input perturbations propagate through decoder-only language models at three levels: output behavior, hidden-state geometry, and attention-head function. We evaluate behavioral effects across four GPT-2 and two Qwen2.5 checkpoints by analyzing layerwise geometry using centered kernel alignment and intrinsic dimension, and examine attention-head responses in GPT-2. Perturbation types produce distinguishable metric profiles that are not fully captured by output measures and are only partly consistent across the tested checkpoints. Copying scores are especially associated with activation-patching recovery under token substitution and shuffling. Gradient-guided HotFlip perturbations also cause stronger behavioral and representational disruption than rate-matched random token substitutions in GPT-2; their behavioral effects are consistent across all six tested checkpoints. Our results show that robustness claims based on a single behavioral or representational metric can be misleading, and motivate multi-level evaluation of how perturbations alter language-model computation.
Dun Li Chan, Emily Liu, Niyathi Allu et al.· 0 citations
Understanding how the structure of language can be learned from sentences alone is a central question in both cognitive science and machine learning. Studies of the internal representations of Large Language Models (LLMs) support their ability to parse text when predicting the next word, while representing semantic notions independently of surface form. Yet, which data statistics make these feats possible, and how much data is required, remain largely unknown. Probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs) provide a tractable testbed for studying these questions. However, prior work has focused either on the post-hoc characterization of the parsing-like algorithms used by trained networks; or on the learnability of PCFGs with fixed syntax, where parsing is unnecessary. Here, we (i) introduce a tunable class of PCFGs in which both the degree of ambiguity and the correlation structure across scales can be controlled; (ii) provide a learning mechanism -- an inference algorithm inspired by the structure of deep convolutional networks -- that links learnability and sample complexity to specific language statistics; and (iii) validate our predictions empirically across deep convolutional and transformer-based architectures. Overall, we propose a unifying framework where correlations at different scales lift local ambiguities, enabling the emergence of hierarchical representations of the data.
Jack T. Parley, Francesco Cagnetta, Matthieu Wyart· 0 citations
Functional bilevel optimization (FBO) provides a powerful framework for hierarchical learning in function spaces, yet current methods are limited to static offline settings and perform suboptimally in online, non-stationary scenarios. We propose SmoothFBO, the first algorithm for non-stationary FBO with both theoretical guarantees and practical scalability. SmoothFBO introduces a time-smoothed stochastic hypergradient estimator that reduces variance through a window parameter, enabling stable outer-loop updates with sublinear regret. Importantly, the classical parametric bilevel case is a special reduction of our framework, making SmoothFBO a natural extension to online, non-stationary settings. Empirically, SmoothFBO consistently outperforms existing FBO methods in non-stationary hyperparameter optimization and model-based reinforcement learning, demonstrating its practical effectiveness. Together, these results establish SmoothFBO as a general, theoretically grounded, and practically viable foundation for bilevel optimization in online, non-stationary scenarios.
Jason Bohne, Ieva Petrulionyte, Michael Arbel et al.· 0 citations
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This work develops an active learning framework to intelligently enrich data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) of parametric dynamical systems, which can serve as the foundation of virtual assets in a digital twin. Data-driven ROMs are explainable, computationally efficient scientific machine learning models that aim to preserve the underlying physics of complex dynamical simulations. Since the quality of data-driven ROMs is sensitive to the quality of the limited training data, we seek to identify training parameters for which using the associated training data results in the best possible parametric ROM. Our approach uses the operator inference methodology, a regression-based strategy which can be tailored to particular parametric structure for a large class of problems. We establish a probabilistic version of parametric operator inference, casting the learning problem as a Bayesian linear regression. Prediction uncertainties stemming from the resulting probabilistic ROM solutions are used to design a sequential adaptive sampling scheme to select new training parameter vectors that promote ROM stability and accuracy globally in the parameter domain. We conduct numerical experiments for several nonlinear parametric systems of partial differential equations and compare the results to ROMs trained on random parameter samples. The results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive sampling strategy consistently yields more stable and accurate ROMs than random sampling does under the same computational budget.
Shane A. McQuarrie, Mengwu Guo, Anirban Chaudhuri· 0 citations
We study the problem of selecting the best heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimator from a collection of candidates in settings where the treatment effect is fundamentally unobserved. We cast estimator selection as a multiple testing problem and introduce a ground-truth-free procedure based on a cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic. A key component of our method is a two-way sample splitting scheme that decouples nuisance estimation from weight learning and ensures the stability required for valid inference. Leveraging a stability-based central limit theorem, we establish asymptotic familywise error rate control under mild regularity conditions. Empirically, our procedure provides reliable error control while substantially reducing false selections compared with commonly used methods across ACIC 2016, IHDP, and Twins benchmarks, demonstrating that our method is feasible and powerful even without ground-truth treatment effects.
Hamiltonian dynamics describe a wide range of physical systems. As such, data-driven simulations of Hamiltonian systems are important for many scientific and engineering problems. In this work, we propose kernel-based methods for identifying and forecasting Hamiltonian systems directly from trajectory data. We present two approaches: a 2-step method that reconstructs trajectories before learning the Hamiltonian, and a 1-step method that jointly infers both. Across several benchmark systems, including mass-spring dynamics, a nonlinear pendulum, and the Henon-Heiles system, we demonstrate that our framework achieves accurate, data-efficient predictions and outperforms 2-step kernel-based baselines, particularly in scarce-data regimes, while preserving the Hamiltonian structure. Moreover, we prove a priori error estimates, ensuring reliability of the learned models. We also provide a more general, problem-agnostic numerical framework that goes beyond Hamiltonian systems and can be used for data-driven learning of arbitrary dynamical systems.
Yasamin Jalalian, Mostafa Samir, Boumediene Hamzi et al.· 0 citations
We study counterfactual regression, which maps features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This problem is central to decision-making under distribution shift, where treatment patterns may change at deployment. We develop a semiparametric framework for counterfactual regression along a prespecified incremental-intervention path. The target is a finite-dimensional constrained projection of counterfactual risk, estimated using cross-fitted influence-function representations of the program components. For smooth programs with fixed constraints and finite-dimensional programs with estimated linear constraints, we establish consistency and local stability of the optimizer under class-specific conditions, and derive pointwise and uniform first-order expansions. These results yield asymptotically valid inference, including simultaneous confidence bands for the counterfactual regression path. Simulations and an application to SMS reminders illustrate the finite-sample performance and practical applicability of the proposed approach.
Most modern optimizers form their momentum as an exponential moving average (EMA) of past gradients, forgetting every direction at one fixed rate. However, the inputs a deep network sees during training can be highly anisotropic, with a few directions queried frequently while most are seen rarely. Preconditioning methods address this anisotropy by wrapping extra processing around this buffer and leave the momentum update itself unchanged. We propose Activation-Keyed Momentum (AK-Momentum), which builds direction-awareness into the momentum update rule. The gradient of a linear layer splits into an input activation that acts as a key and an output-side error that acts as a value. Keying on that activation, AK-Momentum updates the momentum buffer by the canonical delta rule, so each direction is forgotten at a rate set by how often it appears. We prove that it is a valid momentum, that it applies the input-side curvature correction without matrix inversion, and that it clears stale directions faster than EMA under both a fixed and a drifting optimum. It is a drop-in replacement for the momentum buffer of any optimizer, its coefficient transfers across widths under $\mu$P, and its extra compute stays between $22.2\%$ and $25.0\%$ of a gated-MLP block's linear cost with no persistent memory. In FineWeb-Edu pretraining, AdamW with AK-Momentum (AK-AdamW) reaches AdamW's validation loss in up to $46.39 \pm 4.32\%$ fewer steps at 67M and $22.12 \pm 0.80\%$ at 370M over three seeds, and the gain persists at 1B on a Chinchilla-optimal budget. A Muon baseline tuned under the same protocol sits above AK-AdamW at both language-model scales, and the gain holds for SGD, ResNet-18, and ViT-Tiny on CIFAR-10. Training-time diagnostics confirm the predicted mechanism, better gradient tracking and healthier input directions.
Conformal Prediction (CP) provides robust uncertainty guarantees for predictive models, but is typically applied post hoc, which misaligns model training with the conformal goal of producing efficient (i.e., narrow) intervals. We propose SPACR (Single-Pass Adaptive Conformal Regressor), a novel method for directly training uncertainty-aware regressors within a differentiable loss. SPACR jointly optimizes accuracy, efficiency, and validity without batch-splitting or a predefined confidence level during training. As a result, a single SPACR model yields valid prediction intervals at multiple confidence levels during inference, avoiding the costly retraining required by methods like Directly Optimized Inductive Conformal Regression (DOICR). Experiments on diverse tabular and image datasets show that SPACR consistently gives tighter intervals and better coverage-efficiency trade-offs compared to standard CP and DOICR, while significantly reducing computational costs relative to retraining-dependent baselines.
Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents typically learn world models by minimizing predictive loss. However, powerful RL optimizers inevitably exploit minor model inaccuracies, leading to simulator exploitation and a reality gap where policies succeed in simulation but fail in the real world. We propose that the objective for learning simulators should be strategic robustness rather than predictive accuracy, and formulate this as a zero-sum minimax game between a model player and an adversarial policy player. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis: (1) an online learning guarantee showing the game is learnable with sublinear regret bounds; (2) a tractable critic-based simplification bounding the global policy-value gap by the local critic's loss; and (3) an Error-MDP duality, proving that finding the worst-case policy is formally dual to a standard RL problem where the reward is the one-step critic error. This duality yields a provably convergent active data selection algorithm. Experiments on continuous control tasks demonstrate that our approach reduces prediction error in strategically important regions by $1.5$-$2.2\times$ and enables policies trained purely in simulation to match near-optimal real-world performance.
Christoph Dann, Yishay Mansour, Mehryar Mohri· 0 citations
We derive two attention operators from generalized statistical entropies. Kaniadakis entropy yields an exact full-support normalization whose weights and low-score sensitivities decay algebraically, rather than exponentially as in Softmax or by exact truncation as in entmax. Classical Abe entropy yields an implicit reciprocal-symmetric operator. With $q=e^\epsilon$, the involution $q\leftrightarrow q^{-1}$ removes every odd correction about Softmax; we obtain the normalized second- and fourth-order terms, including the deformation of the normalization multiplier. These stationary laws follow from a Fisher-metric Lagrangian on the probability simplex, whose Shannon sector recovers scaled dot-product Softmax. We also give a tangent-gradient test for deciding whether changing the entropy changes the attention profile or only its scale. R\'enyi and two-parameter Sharma--Mittal entropies retain the Tsallis--entmax inverse-gradient shape, but their global moments make the effective temperature input dependent when the external temperature is fixed. Distinguishing profile-shape equivalence from fixed-parameter operator equivalence separates new normalization shapes from adaptive rescalings and organizes the operators by support, tail behavior, and realization complexity.
