Alternative futures of platform power in Iran’s digital economy: a causal layered analysis approach
Platform power in transactional superplatforms has increasingly shaped market access, labor conditions, and regulatory agendas in Iran, yet much existing scholarship remains present-focused and insufficiently attentive to the discursive and cultural foundations through which platform dominance is normalized and future trajectories are configured. This study examines the accumulation of platform power in Iranian transactional superplatforms as a multi-layered, future-shaping phenomenon. Drawing on an interpretive qualitative design, the study analyzes data from 18 semi-structured expert interviews and two focus group discussions with platform executives, policymakers/regulators, and academic experts. Following full transcription, thematic analysis produced approximately 350 initial codes, which were refined into around 40 core themes. These were subsequently organized through Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) across four layers: litany, systemic/social causes, worldview/discourse, and myth/metaphor. Findings indicate that platform power is sustained by the interplay of market concentration, data and algorithmic monopolization, algorithmic exploitation, the multisided dependence of users and small businesses, and institutional/regulatory gaps. At the discourse layer, two competing framings, “innovation at any cost” and “digital justice,” structure legitimation and contestation of platform dominance. At the metaphor layer, recurring images such as the “digital empire,” “gateway,” “unleashed monster,” and “algorithm as final judge” reveal deeper cultural narratives that stabilize dependency and constrain governance imaginaries. Building on these layered findings, the study articulates three indicative future pathways for platform power in Iran: continued consolidation, discursive shift, and fragile balance, each shaped by key drivers and uncertainties regarding data transparency, regulatory capacity, and discursive legitimacy. The study contributes to platform power research by integrating empirically grounded thematic analysis with CLA to make visible how structural mechanisms, institutional conditions, and cultural imaginaries jointly shape alternative futures. The findings provide a basis for anticipatory digital governance, highlighting the need for coordinated interventions to address data/algorithmic accountability, institutional coherence, and legitimacy struggles surrounding innovation and justice.