Author

Andrew C. Breed

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Open access Sep 2026

Assessing the accuracy of kernel-fitting and projections of spatial risk at key early timepoints in outbreaks

Rapid decision-making during exotic animal disease outbreaks necessitates the early characterisation of transmission dynamics; however, in practice, a strategic balance between accuracy and speed is required. This study presents a simplified and practical approach for field response, leveraging initial kernel estimat...

Si-Min Lee, Christopher M. Baker, Emily Sellens et al. · Scientific Reports · 0 citations

Open access Sep 2026

A real-time forecasting framework for emerging infectious diseases affecting animal populations

Infectious disease forecasting has become increasingly important in public health. However, forecasting tools for emergency animal diseases, particularly those offering real-time decision support when parameters governing disease dynamics are unknown, remain limited. We introduce a generalised modelling framework for n...

M. Theng, Si-Min Lee, Andrew C. Breed et al. · PLoS Computational Biology · 0 citations

Open access Aug 2026

Forecasting high pathogenicity avian influenza with a stochastic mechanistic model: performance and lessons for Australia

A spatiotemporal mechanistic model of infectious disease dynamics developed for the HPAI Modelling Challenge and its implications for forecasting and policy in Australia are described.

M. Theng, Si-Min Lee, Michelle Wille et al. · bioRxiv · 0 citations