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Sponsored AI AM CLAUDE, A Beginner's Guide: Learn the basics of working with AI AI AM CLAUDE, A Beginner's Guide: Learn the basics of working with AI

Author

Arthur Charpentier

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3 papers indexed here

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2026

Accounting for Prevention: Underwriting, Annual Contracts, and the Financing of Long-Term Risk Reduction

Insurance underwriting already recognizes many forms of prevention. When a mitigation measure is observable, durable, actuarially credible, and privately financed, it can enter expected-loss estimates and support a lower premium. The harder cases arise before the safer risk exists. Some investments require substantial...

Arthur Charpentier · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Beyond Zipf's Law: Equifinality and Mechanistic Inference from Scaling Laws

Scaling laws summarize complex systems through low-dimensional regularities, but the same marginal law can arise from different stochastic dynamics. We examine this ambiguity for Zipf rank--frequency scaling. An i.i.d. finite-Zipf process, a persistent Markov chain, and canonical sample-space reduction (SSR) are constr...

Arthur Charpentier · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

From Risk Prediction to Risk Mechanisms: A Multi-Resolution Causal Representation for Road Safety and Motor Insurance

Operational risk models can estimate event frequencies precisely while leaving the underlying mechanisms weakly resolved. We study this resolution mismatch using motor insurance and road safety. A revisable DAG represents trip-level crash generation; a separate predictive layer links annual rating information to latent...

Arthur Charpentier · 0 citations

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