Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation. However, newly established surveillance systems often lack the historical data needed to train reliable neural forecasting models. Although pretrained time-series models offer promising zero-shot forecasts, their cross-domain training may not capture local epidemiological dynamics. We propose TREA-Net, a Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for dengue forecasting under limited data. TREA-Net augments neural forecasting backbones with projections from an Environmental Time-Series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and learns a lightweight gated residual correction transferable from data-rich to data-scarce regions. Its node-invariant design accommodates surveillance systems with different numbers of locations, while target adaptation requires learning only two global parameters. We transfer knowledge from long-running dengue surveillance in Colombia and Nicaragua to 8-week-ahead forecasting in Mexico and Malaysia using only 78 or 104 weeks of target data. Across five neural backbones and ten transfer settings, TREA-Net improves the corresponding backbone in 9 out of 10 settings, with statistically significant gains. When integrated with TiRex, a foundation model for forecasting, it achieves the lowest mean absolute error across all target datasets. Conformal prediction further maintains empirical coverage while reducing 8-week prediction-interval width by 29.6% in Mexico. These results demonstrate TREA-Net's potential as a lightweight and portable early-warning framework for health agencies with limited surveillance data.
Inesh Shukla, Madhurima Panja, Tanujit Chakraborty et al.· 0 citations
Low-dimensional reductions provide a useful framework for studying high-dimensional dynamics on complex networks, but most existing approaches are restricted to pairwise interactions. Here, we develop a one-dimensional reduction for dynamical systems on networks with purely higher-order interactions. The reduction is formulated through an effective higher-order interaction strength ($\beta_{\Delta}$), associated with the triangular interactions of the underlying network and the dynamical system's effective state. We present a theoretical framework for the dimension-reduction approach and validate it across three dynamical models with exclusively higher-order interactions. We find that the reduction accuracy is mainly determined by the homogeneity of node states, i.e., the deviations in state values become very small. Numerical results on synthetic and real networks show that the reduced model captures the effective steady states and transitions of the full system with good accuracy.
We derive a one-dimensional reduction for nonlinear dynamics on simplicial complexes containing both pairwise and triangular (higher-order) interactions. The effective state is defined using a mixed weight determined by the pairwise and triangular degrees of each node. The resulting reduced equation retains two structural coefficients, associated separately with the pairwise and higher-order coupling channels. A fluctuation expansion identifies the closure assumptions underlying the reduction and shows how deviations of individual node states from the effective state contribute to the approximation error. We numerically validate the proposed framework on Gene-regulatory dynamics, the double-well system, and SIS spreading. The states of the reduced model are compared with full-network simulations through coupling-parameter sweeps, steady-state branch calculations, and progressive node-removal experiments on synthetic and real-world networks. The reduced model successfully reproduces the principal transitions and steady-state branches in all three dynamical systems considered. Agreement is strongest for relatively homogeneous networks and deteriorates when structural heterogeneity produces a broader distribution of node states. The closure diagnostics account for this loss of accuracy and indicate when a single effective state is no longer sufficient. The reduction therefore provides a tractable description of resilience in systems with coexisting pairwise and higher-order interactions.
Amit Tiwari, C. Hens, Prosenjit Kundu· 0 citations