Task difficulty dictates an agent's likelihood of success, and estimating it without rollouts means forecasting this directly from a task description before executing costly simulations in stateful environments. Reliable estimates would therefore allow environment designers to calibrate evaluation benchmarks and construct progressive training curricula. This becomes increasingly important as agents move into long-horizon domains, where empirical trial-and-error is a severe computational bottleneck. Prior work on early prediction is limited to static tasks or isolated coding environments, often relying on narrow features and inaccurate evaluation metrics. We study \textit{ex ante} difficulty prediction across 17 agentic benchmarks spanning coding, mathematics, machine learning, web navigation, function calling, and other domains. We show that AUC can mask poor difficulty estimates, identify token-level entropy as a useful predictive signal, and show how residuals between expected and observed difficulty can expose hidden environment flaws such as contamination and infeasibility.
Comprehensively evaluating AI agents across interactive environments is difficult due to fragmented tasks, scaffolds, verifiers, and scoring rules. Unfortunately, existing efforts to unify these evaluations are limited in scale and domain, making costly reruns necessary and leaving available data incomparable. We introduce MESSIER, a unified corpus of 957,611 records spanning 30 benchmarks, 745 agents, 11,891 tasks, and 74,263 verifiers. MESSIER combines public evaluation results with new runs on six underrepresented professional and scientific benchmarks, standardizing their heterogeneous components into a common schema. Using this corpus, we show that frontier progress is uneven across benchmark groups, with function-calling evaluations largely saturated, programming improving fastest, and enterprise workflows remaining most challenging. Counterfactual rescoring further shows that strict all-pass scoring in multi-verifier tasks can alter agent rankings. Finally, we derive capability scores from our corpus that correlate with Epoch's Evaluation Capability Index rankings at Spearman \r{ho} = 0.84. The scores can also be estimated for subsets defined by domain, occupation, action space, or verifier type. In essence, MESSIER is a reusable resource for studying agent performance at scale, and a basis for designing better evaluations.
Stefan Krsteski, Charlotte Meyer, Guillaume Allegre et al.· 0 citations