This paper examines the relationship between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication surprises, global risk sentiment, and net portfolio debt inflows to twelve major emerging market economies over the period 2000–2024. Exploiting a high-frequency U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database, we estimate panel fixed-effects regressions and local projections at quarterly frequency. We find that global risk sentiment, proxied by the VIX, is a robust and persistent driver of emerging market capital flows, while Fed communication surprises are statistically insignificant in normal times and in the 2022–2024 tightening cycle. A striking exception is the 2013 taper tantrum—the episode of severe capital outflow pressure triggered by Chairman Bernanke’s May 2013 congressional testimony signalling a possible tapering of asset purchases. Regime interaction tests reveal a large, highly significant negative effect of communication surprises on flows during this episode alone, with no comparable effect in 2022. Local projections confirm that the taper tantrum generated a sharp initial outflow followed by partial reversal, while VIX effects are contemporaneous but not persistent. We empirically test for market learning, finding that reduced sensitivity to Fed communication reflects a discrete recalibration after the 2013 shock rather than a gradual learning process. Regarding capital flows, the taper tantrum is clearly the exception, not the rule.
Colin Ellis· International Journal of Fin...· 0 citations
A persistent difficulty in monitoring private-credit risk is that narrative and quantitative information in periodic filings are produced jointly but evaluated separately. This leaves open the question of whether disclosure language is a useful signal of risk management behaviour or merely an echo of conditions already visible in published data. For business development companies (BDCs), this separation carries a particular cost: the sector sits at the intersection of private credit, fair-value accounting, and floating-rate funding, where filing language about portfolio conditions and the macro environment may reflect the cycle itself rather than add to what published rate and spread data already reveal. This paper asks two questions. First, do aggregate BDC text measures of macro and portfolio-credit language co-move with key macro series over time? Second, does cross-sectional text intensity relate in a stable, linear way to the same BDC’s reported ratios and their volatility? Using dictionary-based filing scores linked to over 590 BDC observations and macro series from 2010 to 2025, we find macro text in filings correlates strongly with variables such as the Federal funds rate and the two-year Treasury yield. Portfolio-credit text lines up with corporate spreads and the unemployment rate. At the firm-year level, associations between text and balance-sheet outcomes are weak. This indicates that BDC narratives are linked with the macro cycle, but there is not a tight mapping to risk metrics in reported financials from year to year, consistent with a degree of insulation in private credit from prevailing macro conditions. For creditors, investors, and supervisors of private-credit vehicles, this asymmetry of macro co-movement without firm-level signal has direct implications for how narrative disclosure should be weighted in risk monitoring and governance frameworks. The aggregate regression results are based on sixteen annual observations and should be interpreted accordingly.