Hazard and risk models in civil protection activities: use and perspectives in Italy
The Italian civil protection system is a comprehensive multi-level framework aimed at protecting people, property and the environment from natural and anthropogenic hazards. Hazard and risk models are essential for all phases of risk management. They guide preparedness and prevention policies, such as plans and structural retrofit programmes. They also underpin emergency management through early warning systems, real time monitoring, rapid damage assessments, and probabilistic models that support civil protection decision-making. In recovery phases, they inform reconstruction priorities and enable “build back better” strategies. An increasingly important role is played by multi-risk approaches. Risk perception and communication, as well as the emerging challenges posed by climate change, deserve special attention. Future priorities also include improved multi-risk assessment, integration of social vulnerability, and the use of artificial intelligence in hazard and risk modelling to enhance evidence-based decisions in disaster risk management.