A rapid expansion of influenza A virus (IAV) genome sequencing has transformed global surveillance but has also created major challenges for interpreting the biological significance of viral mutations, particularly amino acid replacements associated with host adaptation. Resources have been created to support mutation annotation and phylogenetic analysis, but there is a need for a tool that integrates experimentally derived phenotypic evidence with evolutionary context in a framework suitable for users without prior training in bioinformatics. Here, we present the Flu Mutation Explorer, an interactive web application that combines large-scale influenza phylogenies with a manually curated database of reported mammalian adaptation mutations, to enable the exploration and interpretation of IAV genetic variation. The underlying database comprises over 1.5 million publicly available IAV sequences and over 1000 mutations associated with mammalian adaptation. The Flu Mutation Explorer enables users to query protein sequences, visualise amino acid distributions across viral lineages, examine host-specific conservation patterns, and identify adaptation mutation with links to supporting literature. We include case studies which demonstrate the platform’s use in assessing amino acid conservation at sites of interest and in rapidly identifying candidate mammalian adaptation mutations during the ongoing H5N1 panzootic. By integrating genomic, phylogenetic, and functional information into an intuitive interface, the Flu Mutation Explorer lowers the barriers to interpreting influenza sequences for specialists and non-specialists alike.
Laura Mojsiejczuk, Derek W. Wright, R. Gifford et al.· bioRxiv· 0 citations
Protein language models (PLMs) score the effects of amino acid replacements as pseudo-probabilities, which are widely utilised to map protein fitness landscapes. However, because their training data relies on natural amino acid sequences, these models conflate protein structural constraints with nucleotide mutation biases and codon accessibility. Using the rapid emergence of the divergent influenza A H3N2 K lineage as a stress test, we investigate how base PLMs (ESM-2 and ESM-C) versus fine-tuned versions of these models capture mutational processes. We systematically implement a parameter sweep to explicitly couple (or decouple) empirical nucleotide mutational supply from PLM-assessed amino acid substitution pseudo-probabilities across evolutionary forecasting tasks. We find that base PLMs implicitly learn generic nucleotide-level mutational constraints, an effect strongly amplified by virus-specific fine-tuning. Incorporating explicit mutational accessibility significantly improves the binary prediction of observed amino acid changes. Conversely, when predicting the final circulating frequency of variants that have already emerged, adding mutational supply degrades performance, confirming that selection dominates post-emergence dynamics. Additionally, we perform amino-acid-level epistatic scanning to investigate protein structural constraints in the context of genetic background. This indicates the improbable antigenic substitution I160K is dependent on co-occurring S144N and N158D mutations in the H3N2 K lineage. Ultimately, current PLM pseudo-probabilities are a composite metric that conflates protein structural fitness with historical biases in mutational supply. Explicitly decoupling these independent evolutionary processes optimises predictive accuracy for real-world pathogen forecasting and isolates pure protein fitness for synthetic design pipelines.
O. MacLean, Kieran D. Lamb, Spyros Lytras et al.· bioRxiv· 0 citations
