Climatic Drivers of Water Availability in the Atatürk Dam Basin: An Explainable Machine-Learning (XGBoost–SHAP) Framework Using ERA5-Land (1950–2025)
Water availability in the Atatürk Dam basin, the largest reservoir of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) and a snow-fed Euphrates headwater, is sensitive to warming, yet its climatic drivers have not been ranked. Existing studies use trend tests, process models, or black-box machine learning. This study attributes...