Author

Egor Serov

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#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Reliable Risk Estimation with Kernel Mean Matching under Dependent Sampling

Kernel Mean Matching (KMM) estimates risk under covariate shift by reweighting labelled source samples so that their kernel mean embedding matches that of unlabeled target samples. Existing finite-sample guarantees are usually stated for independent samples, although many applications involve temporal, spatial, or clus...

A. Zaytsev, Diana Koldasbayeva, Egor Serov · 0 citations

#artificial intelligence Preprint Oct 2026

MercerFlow: Flow Matching in a Kernel-Induced Latent Space for Probabilistic Forecasting

Recent work has shown that probabilistic flow matching for time series forecasting benefits from a data-matched prior. The resulting prior introduces local correlations, which a sequential architecture usually absorbs: a recurrent neural network (RNN), a structured state-space model (S4), or a Transformer. However, suc...

Ilya Kuleshov, Egor Serov, A. Zaytsev · 0 citations