Author

G. Gavrilopoulos

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Preprint Aug 2026

Uncertainty quantification for expectation-calibrated predictions

The existing literature on model calibration focuses mainly on classification and probabilistic prediction. In this work, we address calibrated point predictions for the conditional mean. Although existing impossibility results preclude exact out-of-sample calibrated predictions, we develop calibrated confidence interv...

G. Gavrilopoulos, Johanna Ziegel · 0 citations

Preprint Jul 2026

Matrix asymptotic calculus for plug-in maximum likelihood estimators in finite Markov chains

A unified matrix-level asymptotic calculus for plug-in non-parametric maximum likelihood estimators in finite Markov models, where the stochastic constraints of the transition matrix need not be removed by a minimal parametrization.

G. Gavrilopoulos, S. Trevezas, Irène Votsi · 1 citation