Deep learning models for scientific spatio-temporal downscaling often minimize reconstruction error while failing to preserve physically meaningful multi-scale structure. For sea surface temperature prediction, this can yield outputs that are numerically plausible yet overly smooth, missing mesoscale variability critical to regional ocean dynamics. Existing methods often focus on pixel-wise objectives or single-context conditioning, which limits their ability to preserve spectral fidelity and generalize across regions. To address this, we propose EddyFlow, a representation learning framework for kilometer-scale sea surface temperature downscaling that balances predictive accuracy, scale-dependent structure, and regional generalization. EddyFlow is trained on the Gulf of St.~Lawrence and evaluated in zero-shot and few-shot settings on the Bay of Fundy and the Gulf of Mexico. EddyFlow demonstrates that physics-informed representation learning reduces zero-shot RMSE by 21%, achieves up to 85.6% skill relative to persistence on unseen domains, and maintains near-ideal spectral fidelity with a PSD ratio of $\approx 1.00$.
Parth Doshi, Priyanka Aravindan, Vaishnav Vaidheeswaran et al.· 0 citations
A Last-Layer Ensemble (LLE), $K$ linear units on one shared frozen feature map, is an efficient single-pass approach to the disagreement-based epistemic uncertainty for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Its weakness is that members share the backbone gradient and can converge toward the same function, collapsing the inter-member diversity the signal depends on. Whether last-layer diversity can be restored, and what mitigates the collapse, is an open question. The weight-orthonormality defining Orthonormal Certificates (OC), the weight-orthonormal special case of the LLE, is only an indirect correction; it decorrelates the weights of the members, not their predictions. Here, we instead target the collapse directly in function space, with a Covariance Last-Layer Ensemble (cov-LLE) that places a direct covariance penalty on member activations. Cov-LLE restores the function-space diversity that weight-orthonormality cannot, and at matched $K$ recovers much of the diversity and calibration of a deep ensemble at $1\times$ backbone cost (in-distribution prediction variance $0.05\!\to\!9.3$ vs. $22.1$ ($\times10^{-3}$), and ECE $0.135\!\to\!0.090$ vs. $0.035$, for a $K\times$-cost deep ensemble), at no cost to accuracy. Viewing OC as a last-layer ensemble also organizes detectors into a two-axis taxonomy (by how their units are trained and how their outputs are scored) and exposes the OC score as a magnitude, motivating a scale-invariant, label-free direction score that repairs its near-OOD failure, adding $+0.16$ to $+0.18$ ROC AUC on every backbone.
H. M. Gillis, Isaac Xu, Gabriel Spadon et al.· 0 citations