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Gregory S. Young

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Preprint Jul 2026

OpenMarket: A Synchronized Polymarket-Binance Dataset for High-Frequency Prediction-Market Research

OpenMarket began as an attempt to trade Polymarket's BTC 15-minute binary markets against Binance BTC/USDT order flow. The attempt did not produce a tradable edge: out-of-sample, a walk-forward logistic model over 43 microstructure features does not beat, and slightly underperforms, the probability already implied by P...

Gregory S. Young · 0 citations

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