THE U-SHAPED ESG PERFORMANCE PARADIGM: GRADIENT-BOOSTED MACHINE LEARNING EVIDENCE CHALLENGING SUSTAINABILITY-FINANCIAL ORTHODOXY
ESG policy is often implemented as if lower ESG risk should automatically produce better equity outcomes. I test that premise in U.S. large-cap stocks with a five-year panel of 500 S&P 500 constituents and Sustainalytics ESG Risk Ratings frozen at January 2019. Firms are sorted into sector-normalized Low, Medium, and H...