Finite Reliability Representations (FRR) certify when a cell-constant policy is sufficient for reliable decision-making in a partially observed system with a known physical noise floor. In practice, however, sensing and execution noise can be latent and context-dependent. This paper develops a certificate-aware active disambiguation framework for an unknown physical noise parameter theta = (sigma_y, sigma_u), with the sensor-only case obtained by fixing sigma_u. We define the Value of Noise Information (VoNI) as the expected excess FRR certificate gap caused by using a reliability cover calibrated to the current estimate rather than to the realized noise parameter. We bound VoNI using action-value model mismatch and FRR radius inflation, showing that noise estimation has low decision value in sub-crossover regimes where the FRR certificate is insensitive to theta, but becomes valuable when posterior uncertainty can invalidate the current cover. A bi-level decision maker uses a posterior over theta, obtained from innovation statistics, execution residuals, or another online estimator, and triggers diagnostic probing only when uncertainty threatens the FRR certificate. We also interpret VoNI as a tractable, certificate-aware approximation to a high-level finite POMDP for latent sensing-execution regime disambiguation. Under stationary, identifiable, and persistently exciting regimes, we establish posterior consistency and convergence of the induced policy loss to the FRR approximation floor. Closed-loop UGV simulations with EKF-based innovation residuals show earlier detection of abrupt sensing-noise jumps, lower drift-tracking error, and substantially fewer probing actions than posterior-entropy exploration over 50 Monte Carlo trials.
We study Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control for nonlinear systems with additive process disturbances whose covariance is unknown, spatially varying, and slowly time-varying. A mismatched disturbance covariance produces a persistent penalty in closed-loop stability certificates, while online estimation can reduce this penalty as data are collected. We propose a cell-wise recursive covariance estimator with spatial diffusion and prove a finite-horizon error bound that separates stochastic-approximation error, spatial-smoothing bias, and temporal-drift effects. The diffusion kernel is chosen to be reversible with respect to the stationary visitation measure, making the diffusion operator dissipative in the weighted Lyapunov analysis. We then substitute the resulting covariance estimate into the MPPI sampling distribution and derive an adaptive stability certificate with an explicit learning penalty. The main result is a payoff theorem: after a computable crossover time, the adaptive controller achieves a strictly tighter certified stability bound than any fixed covariance choice whose mismatch exceeds the residual smoothing and drift allowance. Numerical experiments illustrate the estimator convergence and the resulting stability-tightening effect.
Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) control is directly implementable on nonlinear systems because its online update requires only forward rollouts of the dynamics, not gradients, linearizations, or convex optimization. However, this algorithmic flexibility does not by itself provide a closed-loop stability certificate. This paper establishes such a certificate through a stability-inheritance argument. We assume that there exists a deterministic nonlinear MPC policy whose disturbance-free closed loop is certified by a Control Lyapunov Function terminal cost and a contraction metric, and we show that finite-sample MPPI inherits the nominal contraction when its sampling-based update approximates this reference policy with sufficient accuracy. The approximation error decomposes into a finite-temperature bias floor and a Monte Carlo term that vanishes at the inverse square-root rate in the sample count. Under an explicit small-gain condition, the resulting MPPI closed loop satisfies a finite-horizon, high-probability localized mean practical stability bound with residual floors due to MPPI approximation error, Gaussian process noise, and bad sampling events. The paper also gives an ISS-type restatement and a finite-horizon design procedure for choosing the localization set, temperature, and sample count.
Residual-Conservative Model Predictive Path Integral Control is proposed, a sampling-based MPC framework that modulates safety conservatism online using the prediction-execution residual and shows improved safety margin, success rate, and control efficiency compared with vanilla MPPI under significant model-plant mismatch.
