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Ioannis Papoutsis

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Preprint Aug 2026

On the Effectiveness of Adaptation Strategies for VLM-Based Federated Learning in Remote Sensing

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative training of deep learning models across decentralized image archives without requiring data centralization. This paradigm is particularly relevant in remote sensing (RS), where legal regulations, privacy concerns, and bandwidth constraints restrict data sharing. However, the presence of training data heterogeneity across clients (known as non-IID data) can impede convergence and limit the generalization capability of the aggregated global model. To mitigate the adverse effects of training data heterogeneity, vision-language models (VLMs) can be leveraged in FL due to their transferable representations, which have demonstrated robustness under distribution shifts. However, their large parameter size may substantially increase communication overhead and local computational complexity in federated settings. Therefore, it is crucial to select an appropriate VLM adaptation strategy that balances the generalization ability with the communication and computational constraints. To address this issue, in this paper, we present the first comparative study of VLM adaptation strategies for FL in the context of RS image classification. We investigate full fine-tuning, encoder-specific fine-tuning, prompt learning, and low-rank adaptation (LoRA) tuning, and analyze them with respect to three criteria: 1) generalization capability under non-IID data, 2) communication overhead, and 3) local computational complexity. Experiments on BigEarthNet-S2, EuroSAT, RESISC45, and ImageNet reveal distinct trade-offs between task specialization, cross-domain generalization, and efficiency. Based on our findings, we derive a guideline for the selection of an appropriate VLM adaptation strategy in FL for RS image classification under different operational constraints. The code of this work is publicly available at https://git.tu-berlin.de/rsim/FL-RS-VLM.

Simon Lösche, Barış Büyüktaş, M. Adler et al. · 0 citations
Open access Sep 2025

Uncertainty-aware deep learning for wildfire danger forecasting

Wildfires are among the most severe natural hazards, posing a significant threat to both humans and natural ecosystems. The growing risk of wildfires increases the demand for forecasting models that are not only accurate but also reliable. deep learning (DL) has shown promise in predicting wildfire danger; however, its adoption is hindered by concerns over the reliability of its predictions, some of which stem from the lack of uncertainty quantification. To address this challenge, we present an uncertainty-aware DL framework that jointly captures epistemic (model) and aleatoric (data) uncertainty to enhance short-term wildfire danger forecasting. In the next-day forecasting, our best-performing model improves the area under the precision-recall curve by 1.1% and reduces the expected calibration error by 1.5% compared to a deterministic baseline, enhancing both predictive skill and calibration. Our experiments confirm the reliability of the uncertainty estimates and illustrate their practical utility for decision support, including the identification of uncertainty thresholds for rejecting low-confidence predictions and the generation of well-calibrated wildfire danger maps with accompanying uncertainty layers. Extending the forecast horizon up to ten days, we observe that aleatoric uncertainty increases with time, showing greater variability in environmental conditions, while epistemic uncertainty remains stable. Finally, we show that although the two uncertainty types may be redundant in low-uncertainty cases, they provide complementary insights under more challenging conditions, underscoring the value of their joint modeling for robust wildfire danger prediction. In summary, our approach significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of wildfire danger forecasting, advancing the development of trustworthy wildfire DL systems.

Spyros Kondylatos, N. Papadopoulos, G. Camps-Valls et al. · 5 citations · ⚡1