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Preprint Oct 2026

Bayes Factor Testing of Linear and Nonlinear Effects in Additive Gaussian Process Regression

Gaussian process regression flexibly models nonlinear relationships between predictors and an outcome variable. A central question in this modeling framework is whether each predictor affects the outcome linearly, nonlinearly, or not at all. We propose a Bayesian testing framework for this problem within additive Gauss...

Yue-Heng Wu, Joran Jongerling, J. Mulder · 0 citations
#machine learning Review Sep 2026

Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents...

E. Sivak, Emily M Cantrell, Thomas Emery et al. · 0 citations

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