The Operational Value of Spatial Dependence in Renewable Forecast Scenarios for Single-Period Economic Dispatch: A Controlled Ablation Study
Renewable forecasts are evaluated by statistical skill (e.g., CRPS), but grid operators pay for realized dispatch cost. We diagnose what drives dispatch value in a single-period newsvendor-style economic dispatch using real public data from two European transmission systems (CWE, DE-4TSO). Spatial coherence across fore...