The Profit-Valuation Disconnect of Chinese Listed Banks: Empirical Evidence from Non-Interest Income (2015–2024)
Interest rate liberalization pressures Chinese listed banks to expand non-interest in-come, yet prior research overlooks capital-market valuation responses. Using a bal-anced panel of 24 A-share banks (2015–2024, 240 observations) with two-way fixed-effects regressions, we find that non-interest income ratio (NIIR) significantly boosts ROE (β=0.055, p=0.003) but has no significant effect on market capitalization (p=0.304). Mechanism analysis reveals that investors view fee-based income as pas-sive compensation for shrinking spreads, not sustainable growth, thus denying valua-tion premiums. Credit risk and net interest margins remain key drivers for both prof-its and market prices. This study constructs a dual "accounting profit + market valua-tion" framework, filling a gap in diversification literature, and offers strategic impli-cations for bank management, investors, and regulators to prioritize quality over scale in non-interest businesses.