Author

Johan de Aguas

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Preprint Oct 2026

Scope-Restricted Backtracking Counterfactuals

Interventional counterfactuals evaluate statements such as"had $A$ been $a$"by replacing the assignment for $A$ while keeping the unit's exogenous background fixed. Backtracking counterfactuals reverse this logic: they preserve the structural assignments and instead vary background conditions across worlds. This semant...

Johan de Aguas, Martin Jullum · 0 citations

Preprint Open access Oct 2026

Collaborative representations for targeted causal inference under outcome selection

Estimating causal effects with missing outcomes requires learning outcome, exposure, and selection models. Flexible propensity learners can predict treatment or missingness well while worsening target estimation by emphasizing instruments, weak-overlap regions, or variation unrelated to outcome-regression bias. We prop...

Johan de Aguas · 0 citations