Author

José Ignacio Rivero-Wildemauwe

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Preprint Sep 2026

The Favorite-Longshot Bias in Prediction Markets: Evidence from Polymarket

The favorite--longshot bias (FLB) is one of the most persistent return patterns in betting markets, but its prevalence in modern prediction markets and its relation to recurrent longshot demand remain unclear. We study these questions in Polymarket, a large and increasingly important prediction market, using 588 millio...

Marcos Cardozo, José Ignacio Rivero-Wildemauwe · 1 citation