Classical compute-optimal scaling laws assume an unbounded supply of fresh pretraining data, yet pretraining is increasingly entering a regime in which compute grows faster than the availability of high-quality data. We propose Compute-Data (CD) scaling laws, a unified framework that bridges compute-optimal scaling, where data scales freely with compute, and data-optimal scaling, where the corpus is fixed while compute can grow without bound. CD scaling extends classical scaling laws by introducing a token-effectiveness function, $\eta$, which quantifies the value of a derived token-produced, for example, through multi-epoch repetition or paraphrasing-relative to a fresh token, ranging from a perfect substitute to having no value. We fit $\eta$ for two data-expansion strategies, multi-epoch repetition and paraphrasing, across model sizes from 14M to 600M parameters using the Dolma-3 corpus. We find that token effectiveness is far from constant: it depends jointly on model size, the tokens-per-parameter ratio, and the amount of derived data, and it saturates as the corpus is expanded. The functional form of $\eta$ implies diminishing returns when substituting compute for data as either model size or data availability increases. It also partitions training into three operational regimes---compute-bound, data-bound, and model-bound---and shows that classical compute-optimal allocation is suboptimal across most practically relevant settings.
Tian Qin, K. Hamidieh, David Alvarez-Melis· 0 citations
Human evaluation of AI systems and digital products is costly, slow, and difficult to scale. Offline evaluations are more scalable but often abstract away human diversity and interactive behavior. We therefore introduce MatrAIx, a population-scale simulated-user evaluation infrastructure for testing AI systems and digital products with heterogeneous users. MatrAIx has three core components: First, Persona 8B contains 8.3 billion persona records represented by 1,290 categorical dimensions. Records are either sampled from a dependency graph that preserves correlated attributes or derived from human-authored profiles. We release a quality-filtered coreset of approximately 1 million personas, comprising 599,847 human-grounded and 400,000 synthetic records. Second, the MatrAIx Playground provides four environments in which diverse users evaluate and interact with digital products: Survey, AI Chatbot, Web, and App. Third, MatrAIx provides 1,010 application tasks spanning more than 25 domains, including Commerce, Software, Finance, and Healthcare. We conducted 18,189 evaluation trials across eight representative tasks. Persona agents were powered by three LLMs: Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5, and Claude Haiku 4.5. The resulting feedback captures how decisions and preferences vary across persona backgrounds, including hesitation after a price increase, willingness to continue after an AI assistant fails, and latency tolerance. We conducted two main validation studies: First, a 400-trial controlled study evaluated persona adherence across ten behavioral attributes and all four environments. The declared behavior was expressed or correctly suppressed in 366 trials (91.5%). Second, human and LLM judges evaluated the extraction quality of human-grounded personas. Overall, MatrAIx provides an end-to-end infrastructure for evaluating AI systems and digital products with diverse simulated human users.
Xiaomin Li, Yuexing Hao, Jian Hou et al.· 0 citations
Machine learning progress is often attributed to scaling model size and dataset volume, yet the composition of data can be just as consequential. Empirical findings repeatedly show that combining datasets from different domains yields nontrivial interactions. For instance, adding code improves mathematical reasoning, while certain mixtures introduce interference that reduces model performance. We refer to these effects collectively as data synergy, where the contribution of multiple domains exceeds or falls short of the sum of their isolated contributions. In this work, we formalize and quantify data synergy in language model pretraining. Leveraging observational variation across open-weight LLMs with diverse pretraining mixtures, we estimate both direct domain-to-benchmark synergy (how one domain contributes to performance on another) and a second-order domain-domain synergy (capabilities that require co-occurrence of multiple domains). Our framework improves predictive accuracy over domain-agnostic scaling laws and recovers stable synergy estimates. We validate these estimates by training models on predicted optimal and predicted anti-optimal mixtures and confirm that our synergy estimates correctly predict performance rankings.
K. Hamidieh, Lester Mackey, David Alvarez-Melis· 4 citations