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#machine learning Preprint Oct 2026

Universal Bounds for Self-Normalized Kullback-Leibler Estimation

This work studies an entropy-based estimator of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence constructed from normalized importance weights. We prove a universal finite-sample bound showing that its expectation can exceed the target-proposal KL divergence by at most $\log 2$ for any sample size. We then characterize the KL diverge...

Buu Phan, L. Mackey, David Alvarez-Melis · 0 citations
#machine learning Preprint Apr 2026

Advancing Subseasonal Forecasting with Machine Learning

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models. Ho...

Hannah Guan, S. Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein et al. · 1 citation

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