Agreement among repeated samples of a language model is routinely read as evidence about answer reliability, yet wrong answers can agree just as strongly as right ones. This paper asks what information wrong-consensus agreement actually contains, and answers with a quantitative decomposition. A pluralistic agreement index Gamma, normalized by the reference scale d=(1-p)/(C-1), is split into a mechanical component (agreement delivered by a per-case answer preference alone) and a preference-unexplained residual. The mechanical reference is leak-free: each case's preference and accuracy are estimated from its other runs only. On public GPT-4.1 per-run data, coverage phi (the mechanical/empirical ratio) shows a benchmark-associated direction: 0.81-0.93 on multiple-choice GPQA-Diamond against 0.59-0.78 on open-domain AIME, where a residual of 1.54-2.80 Gamma units survives, more than absorbed by a calibrated run-level preference-heterogeneity reference. A controlled replication under one fixed protocol (four runs per question, K=32 votes) on five open-weights checkpoints (Qwen3.5-9B/122B, Qwen3.8-27B, Gemma4-26B/31B) finds near-complete mechanical coverage in all ten cells (phi approximately 1, with a small overshoot consistent with a quantified finite-donor plug-in bias), robust to a two-run design; the largest cell (qwen3.5-122b, p=0.222) sits inside the GPT-4.1 AIME accuracy range and still saturates (phi=1.041). A cross-system contrast at comparable aggregate accuracy contrasts near-complete mechanical agreement in the open-weights models against a larger preference-unexplained residual in the frontier family. This contrast is confounded with sampling protocol by design. Agreement is graded evidence, not certification. No new voting method is proposed; code and evidence are committed.
Lizhuo Zhang, Mengmeng Tang, Chenfeng Long et al.· 1 citation
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are widely used for automated annotation, yet their per-class accuracy varies widely (e.g., 12%-98% across the 13 classes of three classroom sub-datasets) and is expensive to measure: evaluating one 27B MLLM on 5,416 validation images takes roughly 14 hours, whereas a frozen-CLIP pass over the same images completes in about 3 minutes. A low-cost signal for ranking classes by expected MLLM annotation difficulty a priori remains underexplored. Building on the AnchorProxy construct (per-class zero-shot CLIP accuracy) introduced in the companion study, this paper systematically evaluates its full-frame formulation, termed AnchorScore here, as an a priori diagnostic that flags the classes MLLMs are least likely to annotate reliably. On classroom behavior data (SCB5, 13 classes, 6 MLLMs), AnchorScore correlates with per-class MLLM accuracy (Spearman rho = 0.769, p = 0.002, n = 13). None of the alternative difficulty predictors (DINOv2, ResNet-50, SigLIP, or MLLM self-verbalized uncertainty) showed a significant class-level correlation at n = 13. A cross-model consensus control suggests AnchorScore primarily captures a shared class-difficulty factor rather than a CLIP-specific signal. An independent replication on Stanford40 Actions yields a nearly identical effect (rho = 0.817, p<0.001); the association is strongest on activity-recognition data and attenuates on medical and satellite imagery. Three practical applications follow: a deployable hybrid CLIP/MLLM routing strategy (predicted-class routing: up to +23 pp over CLIP-only at roughly 44% MLLM cost savings), prompt disambiguation on hard classes (exploratory), and review-priority prediction for human verification. AnchorScore does not estimate exact MLLM accuracy; it provides a low-cost ranking signal that directs expensive MLLM evaluation to the classes where it is most informative.
A quantitative account of the failure of majority voting over multiple LLM samples to raise answer accuracy, yet its gain varies erratically: on hard questions it can even backfire.
Lizhuo Zhang, Mengmeng Tang, Chenfeng Long et al.· 0 citations