Author

Luis Fernández-Palacios

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Preprint Oct 2026

Safety stock calculation with heteroscedastic, autocorrelated and heavy-tailed forecast errors, an adaptive parametric method.e

This study develops and validates an adaptive parametric method for sizing safety stock when forecast errors are autocorrelated, heteroscedastic, asymmetric, and heavy-tailed. Using four years of weekly forecasts from a fast-moving consumer goods company, the analysis identifies substantial positive autocorrelation, de...

L. Fernández-Palacios, M. Ceballos, Yolanda Muñoz-Ocaña · 0 citations

Preprint Jul 2026

Beyond recency and magnitude: Learning-aware uncertainty estimation for safety stock under evolving forecast-error distributions

We develop a non-parametric approach to refine forecast-error histories for safety stock estimation without relying on error magnitude or recency alone. Using forecast-error data from a fast-moving consumer goods environment, we show that one year of errors is insufficient to characterize service-level risk, while pool...

Luis Fernández-Palacios, M. Ceballos, Yolanda Muñoz-Ocaña · 0 citations