Observation-Aware Calibration of Agent-Based Epidemic Simulations from Public Aggregate Reports: A COVID-19 City-Report Benchmark Study
City reports record confirmation, recovery or discharge, and death by publication date; agent-based simulations track latent disease events. We calibrated Covasim through an observation layer that converts cumulative reports to daily increments and aligns them with simulation outputs. A two-parameter Optuna-TPE search...