India’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is significantly affected by global commodity market fluctuations, particularly oil prices. Oil-related shocks, such as supply, demand and risk, have been shown to affect domestic, economic and financial conditions in the previous literature, but the effects of these shocks have not been fully explored in India. We set out to decompose the complex dynamics of oil price movements by applying a monthly dataset specifically for India and the high degrees in market tracking via Brent crude prices (from January 2003 to June 2024). We decompose oil price movements into three different types of shocks: supply-driven, demand-driven and risk-driven shocks and examine their effects on EPU by using an MTNARDL model with multiple thresholds. Our study finds that oil price shocks have an asymmetric and threshold-dependent effect on EPU, with long-run effects being more pronounced than short-run effects. In terms of shock components, risk-driven shocks have the strongest impact on the EPU. This research offers two significant conclusions and inferences to the body of current literature. First, the result shows that the effect of oil price shocks on EPU is intrinsically asymmetric and nonlinear, suggesting that different kinds of shocks, such as risk-driven, supply-driven, and demand-driven, transmit through different channels produces diverse policy uncertainty responses. Second, the study provides important insights for practitioners and policymakers by showing that, especially in an emerging economy like India, which is extremely susceptible to external energy shocks, the source and nature of oil price shocks must be carefully identified in order to design effective macroeconomic and stabilization policies.
Md. Shabbir Alam, Ishfaq Hamid, J. A. Mir et al.· Annals of Financial Economic...· 0 citations
The growing concern about environmental sustainability has driven the emergence of FinTech solutions that can promote sustainable finance (sustainable finance index (SFI)) and incorporate environmental, social, and governance aspects. However, significant challenges remain that limit its scope and influence, and further research is necessary to clarify its role and effectiveness in the sustainability domain. The main objective of the study is to investigate the interrelationship among FinTech, institutional quality (institutional quality index (IQI)), sustainable finance (SFI), and environmental and social sustainability in the G20 economies. The study employs a battery of methodological tools, including the Method of Moments-Quantile Regression, System-Generalized Method of Moments, and Panel Quantile-on-Quantile Kernel Regularized Least Squares, using panel data covering the period from 2004 to 2023. The empirical results show that FinTech enhances the SFI, and its impact is heterogeneous across various levels of sustainable finance distribution. IQI moderates this association, showing that strong governance, high-quality regulatory frameworks, and sound legal institutions are essential to maximizing FinTech's influence on the SFI. The results also support the idea that the SFI is environmentally and socially sustainable, as evidenced by reductions in ecological footprint and improvement in social welfare. However, FinTech development increases the ecological footprint, creating a sustainability paradox unless it is compatible with green infrastructure, clean energy transitions, and strong institutional frameworks. The study therefore recommends scaling FinTech and SFI initiatives by strengthening institutions, offering incentives to promote green innovation, and harmonizing policies and strategies to achieve socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable development in G20 member states.
Sabeeh Ullah, Md. Shabbir Alam· Energy & Environment· 0 citations