The global burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2023 and projections to 2040: a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Background Oesophageal cancer (OC) remains a major global public health challenge. This study aims to analyse the global, regional, and national burden of OC from 1990 to 2023 using the latest data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2023. Methods Data on EC prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from GBD 2023. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) were calculated, and temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). Stratified analyses were conducted according to the sociodemographic index (SDI) and risk factor contributions. The disease burden was projected to 2040. Results In 2023, there were an estimated 1 075 606 prevalent cases of OC globally, with an ASPR of 11.7 per 100 000 population. Although age-standardised rates declined, the absolute number of cases increased by 67% from 1990 to 2023. The disease burden varied substantially across SDI regions and geographical areas, with sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia bearing the heaviest burden. Tobacco use was the leading risk factor contributing to DALYs. The global ASPR is projected to rise to 18.8 per 100 000 by 2040. Conclusions Despite decreases in age-standardised rates, the absolute burden of OC remains high, with significant variations across regions, countries, and SDI levels. Efforts should be taken in prevention and early diagnosis for OC and to better identify high-risk populations to inform targeted prevention and screening, and ultimately reduce the OC burden in an efficient and cost-effective way.