The Evolution of Post-Cold War Russia-West Relations and Their Interaction Patterns: A Defensive Realist Perspective
Against the backdrop of the reconfiguration of the international landscape following the end of the Cold War, the relationship has shifted from early expectations of cooperation to a prolonged pattern of strategic rivalry. This paper explores why the multiple efforts by both sides to boost their relations failed to achieve substantive progress. Based on defensive realism, it focuses on strategic signaling and credibility as key mechanisms shaping mutual perceptions and the escalation of the security dilemma. Moreover, the study examines how cooperative intentions were communicated and interpreted, and why they were frequently discounted or misread. Methodologically, it adopts a qualitative case-study approach based on key developments from the early post-Soviet period to the first two terms of Vladimir Putin's presidency, supported by secondary literature in international relations. The findings suggest that Russia's signals of cooperation, such as economic reform, military retrenchment, and institutional engagement, were often deemed non-credible in the West due to perceived inconsistencies between external behavior and domestic political trajectories. Conversely, Western policies, particularly NATO enlargement and engagement in the post-Soviet space, were viewed by Russia as signals of strategic exclusion. And these divergent interpretations created a persistent credibility gap, deepening mutual distrust and the security dilemma, and contributing to the long-term deterioration of bilateral relations.