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#natural language process... Preprint Sep 2025

Do Language Models Update their Forecasts with New Information?

It is found that while models often track the correct update direction, their quantitative shifts remain heavily under-responsive and both verbalized and logits-based confidence estimates are poorly calibrated compared to the human reference standard.

Moy Yuan, Zifeng Ding, Andreas Vlachos · 2 citations
#natural language process... Preprint Aug 2026

Evaluating the Semantic Specificity of Representation Steering in Language Models

Cross-Rule Transfer is proposed, a diagnostic framework that audits representational interventions by evaluating them on rule families where the model is natively competent, providing a rigorous methodology to distinguish genuine reasoning repairs from superficial label overrides.

Moy Yuan, Andreas Vlachos · 0 citations

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