Muhammad Zarlis

Stock-Out Distortion and Under-Forecasting: An Inventory-Aware Diagnosis of Demand-Signal Bias in Multi-SKU Sales Forecasting

Observed sales are only an imperfect proxy for demand. When an item is out of stock the recorded quantity falls even though customers still want it, and the signal used to train forecasting models is distorted as a result. This study diagnoses how that distortion relates to systematic under-forecasting and inventory ri...