Evaluating MFU as a Proxy for GPU Power for Energy-Aware Simulation of LLM Training
High-fidelity performance simulators are essential for designing and configuring efficient AI systems, yet today's tools lack the ability to predict power consumption. Established GPU power models rely on hardware utilization counters, which do not exist until the workload has actually run. This work evaluates whether Model FLOPs Utilization (MFU)-an analytical, software-defined metric relating achieved throughput to peak hardware capability-can serve as a portable, software-defined predictor of GPU power for LLMs. We benchmark almost 3000 single-device training runs across six GPUs, covering different model families, numerical precisions, batch sizes, and context-window lengths. We find that a linear MFU-based power model fits every tested GPU as long as the workload is compute-bound, as in production LLM training. Fitting per-(GPU, dtype, batch size) instead of per-GPU drops the within-cell mean error from around 10% to around 1%, matching the cross-repeat measurement-noise floor.