Assessing the Impact of Anthropogenic Activities on Wetland Ecosystem Change in Rwanda's Satellite City: A Case Study of Rugeramigozi Wetland, Muhanga District (2005–2025)
Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems, yet they continue to experience rapid degradation due to increasing anthropogenic pressures. This study assessed the impact of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem change in Rugeramigozi Wetland, Muhanga District, Rwanda, between 2005 and 2025. A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis of Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery with household surveys, key informant interviews, and field observations. A total of 378 respondents were selected using stratified and purposive sampling techniques, comprising 317 farmers and 61 key informants. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Land use and land cover analysis revealed a substantial decline in open water bodies from 18% to 8% and wetland vegetation from 42% to 35% over the study period. In contrast, agricultural land increased from 30% to 40%, while built-up areas increased from 5% to 12%, indicating continued conversion of natural wetland areas to human-dominated land uses. Respondents identified agricultural expansion, settlement expansion, livestock rearing, waste disposal, and water management as the principal anthropogenic pressures affecting the wetland. Pearson correlation analysis showed a statistically significant positive relationship between anthropogenic activities and wetland ecosystem change (r = 0.523, p < 0.05). Multiple regression analysis also indicated that anthropogenic activities collectively had a statistically significant association with ecosystem change (F = 3.717, p = 0.001); however, the low coefficient of determination (R² = 0.067) indicates that the activities included in the model explained only 6.7% of the observed variation in ecosystem change, suggesting that other environmental, climatic, hydrological, socio-economic, and institutional factors also contribute substantially to wetland transformation. Livestock rearing was the only statistically significant individual predictor (β = 0.301, p = 0.001). The findings demonstrate that anthropogenic activities are important contributors to wetland degradation, but ecosystem change is a multidimensional process that cannot be explained by these activities alone. The study recommends strengthening wetland protection and monitoring, regulating livestock grazing, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and land-use planning, restoring degraded hydrological systems, improving waste management, and enhancing community participation in wetland governance to support long-term ecosystem conservation.