Author

Robert Richardson

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Preprint Oct 2026

When Is a Graph a Covariance? Bayesian Residual Propagation under Covariance Uncertainty

Observing a prediction error at one node can help correct predictions elsewhere, but the benefit depends on the residual dependence between nodes. A graph suggests where that dependence might occur, yet does not establish its sign or strength. We develop a Bayesian model of residual covariance to determine how revealed...

Robert Richardson · 0 citations

Preprint Jul 2026

What Predicts Correctness in Text-to-SQL? A Selective-Prediction Study

This work studies which signals predict correctness on hard multi-table text-to-SQL, using AUROC to measure how well each ranks correct queries above incorrect ones, and asks whether a verifier can be trained.

Robert J. Richardson · 0 citations