Forecasting Acute Hemorrhagic Conjunctivitis Incidence in Henan, China: A Comparative Study of Seasonal Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models
Background Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) is a highly contagious viral disease causing significant public health burden. Accurate forecasting is essential for timely intervention. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model is widely used, but the seasonal autoregressive fractionally in...