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S. Khastgir

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Preprint Jul 2026

Modeling Memory-Dependent Reliability of LLMs: A Hidden Markov Model

A hierarchical Bayesian framework for LLM reliability assessment is extended by relaxing the assumption of independent task outcomes and introducing a Hidden Markov Model to capture sequential dependence in benchmark-constructed interaction sessions, suggesting that ignoring sequential dependence may lead to overconfident reliability estimates.

Robab Aghazadeh Chakherlou, S. Khastgir, Peter Popov et al. · 0 citations