Staying Sober: A Shot-Free Predictor of Logical Error Rates for Concatenated Quantum Error Correcting Codes
Estimating the logical error rate (LER) of a quantum error-correcting (QEC) code by Monte Carlo sampling takes $O(p^{-\lceil d/2 \rceil}/\varepsilon^2)$ samples at physical error rate $p$, code distance $d$ and relative error $\varepsilon$, which becomes intractable at large distances and low error rates, and especiall...