Cyclical Downturn or Structural Transition? Evidence from China’s Household Credit Retrenchment, 2015–2025
: This study reassesses whether the post-2021 weakening of China’s household credit is a temporary downturn or evidence consistent with a more durable transition. It combines release-audited People’s Bank of China lending flows, NIFD leverage stocks, National Bureau of Statistics property and household accounts, and a...