Preprint
Jul 2026
Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Structural Approach
Forward-looking volatility forecasts are central inputs to derivatives pricing, market making, risk management, and volatility-linked trading strategies, with ARCH and GARCH models serving as the canonical workhorses. Such models are natural in standard asset markets, where prices are positive-valued stochastic process...
Weiye Xi, C. Moallemi, Mallesh M. Pai et al.
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