Green Agricultural Development and Urban Carbon Emission Reduction: Evidence from China
Against the backdrop of global climate warming and China’s “dual carbon” goals, exploring the impact of green agricultural development on urban carbon emissions is of great significance for synergistically promoting agricultural green transformation and climate governance. Taking the establishment of National Agricultural Green Development Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs panel data from 288 cities in China from 2015 to 2023 and applies the multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) method to evaluate the impact of green agricultural development on urban carbon emissions. The results show that green agricultural development significantly reduces urban carbon emissions, and this finding remains robust after a series of robustness and endogeneity tests. Mechanism tests indicate that green agricultural development achieves carbon emission reduction by reducing agricultural fertilizer application, promoting the development of digital inclusive finance, and enhancing rural innovation and entrepreneurship. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is influenced by geographical location, topographic conditions, economic development level, and agricultural production functional zones. This paper provides important policy implications for green agricultural development policies, agricultural transformation, and urban carbon emission reduction in developing countries.