Sten H. Vermund

Factors associated with viral suppression and antiretroviral therapy adherence among adolescents and young adults living with HIV in the African Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION Adolescents and young adults living with HIV (AYLHIV) experience poor outcomes across the care continuum, and most reside in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Cohort Study (AFRICOS) provides an opportunity to examine HIV outcomes in this population across Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Uganda. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of AYLHIV aged 15-29 years, enrolled in AFRICOS 2013-2023, and on antiretroviral therapy (ART) ≥ six months. Primary outcomes were HIV viremia and 30-day ART non-adherence. Factors included HIV acquisition route, ART duration, ART class, and site. We used multivariate robust Poisson regression to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Site directors were surveyed to assess youth-friendly services. RESULTS Among 656 participants, the median age was 20.0 years (IQR 17.5-23.3); 41.6% were male, 61.6% had perinatally-acquired HIV, and median duration since HIV diagnosis was nine years. At enrollment, 83.8% had viral suppression (<200 copies/mL) and 80.2% were ART adherent. ART regimen and clinic site were associated with viral suppression: youth on integrase vs. protease inhibitor-based regimens (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 0.38, CI 0.23-0.63, p<0.001), and in Uganda (aRR 0.42, CI 0.20-0.90, p=0.026) or Kisumu, Kenya (aRR 0.40, CI 0.22-0.76, p=0.005) had lower likelihood of non-suppression. Compared to Nigeria, participants from other sites were less likely to report non-adherence (unadjusted RR 0.31-0.44). Youth-friendly service provision varied. CONCLUSIONS Viral suppression and ART adherence were high among AYLHIV in AFRICOS. Clinic site and ART regimen were associated with outcomes, highlighting the importance of health system factors.

Dynamics of global mpox epidemics, 1970–2025: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evolving transmissibility and intervention effects

Abstract Background The 2022 global mpox epidemic declined before modified Vaccinia Ankara–Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) vaccines were widely deployed, contributing to the perception that transmission was self-limiting within a small high-risk population. This may have delayed global vaccine allocation and weakened responses to the resurgence that has disproportionately affected Africa since 2024. The reasons for the 2022 decline remain uncertain, and prior studies have reported widely divergent estimates of vaccination impact. We systematically reviewed and meta-analysed the evolving transmissibility of mpox clades and the effects of interventions. Methods We searched GenBank, PubMed and Embase through 18 May 2025, for mpox virus sequences, reproduction number (R) estimates and modelling studies evaluating intervention effectiveness. Two reviewers independently assessed eligibility, extracted data and evaluated risk of bias using a validated tool. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed. Results Fifty-two studies reporting R estimates and 40 studies evaluating intervention effectiveness met eligibility criteria. For clade I mpox, pooled R increased from 0.71 (95% CI 0.26 to 1.17) during 1970–2017 to 1.23 (1.12–1.33) for subclades Ib/Ia after 2023 (p=0.0303). For clade II mpox, pooled R was 1.11 (0.90–1.32) during 2017–2021 and increased to 2.66 (2.31–3.00) for subclade IIb in 2022–2023 (p<0.0001). During the 2022 subclade IIb outbreak, empirical modelling studies estimated that behaviour change and vaccination together were associated with a substantial reduction in mpox cases (55%, 95% CI 37 to 73; I²=81.2%), although effect sizes varied across settings according to the extent of behaviour change and the timing and coverage of vaccine rollout. Conclusions Behaviour change and vaccination likely played important roles in the decline of the 2022 mpox epidemic in many studied settings. Given the stepwise increase in human-to-human transmissibility associated with the emergence of new subclades, effective mpox epidemic control requires proactive, rapid and equitable vaccine rollout supported by culturally tailored risk communication. PROSPERO registration number CRD420250653072.

Sex-specific associations between pubertal development and MASLD in children: evidence from the PROC study.