Traffic signal control is a complex sequential decision-making problem requiring real-time adaptation and trade-offs among throughput, delay fairness, signal stability, and emergency vehicle priority. Existing RL methods often fix objectives, ignore dynamic priority changes, and fail to generalize across geometrically similar intersections.We propose SIGMA (Symmetry-aware, Intelligent, Geometric, Multi-objective Adaptive traffic control), an RL framework enhanced with a large language model (LLM) for adaptive objective tuning and orientation-invariant learning. SIGMA converts natural-language emergency commands into priority vectors for a multi-objective actor-critic controller, avoiding manual reward engineering. Rotational augmentation improves transferability across four-way intersections, while offline-to-online learning ensures stable initialization and gradual adaptation to changing traffic.We define reliability properties covering emergency service levels, graceful degradation under LLM failures, and demand sensitivity, validated via bootstrap statistics. Evaluated in SUMO on four Kolkata-based urban intersections against fixed-time, actuated, and DQN controllers, SIGMA reduces average/emergency waiting times and queue lengths, and boosts throughput. Ablation studies confirm robustness to component failures and geometric rotations. Overall, SIGMA offers a reliable, language-guided, multi-objective traffic control system with statistical reliability assurance.
Pratham Payra, B. Jagadish, T. Sen et al.· 0 citations
Accurate dengue forecasting is crucial for public health planning, but remains challenging because incidence series are often short, noisy, non-stationary, nonlinear, and often affected by long-range temporal dependence. Fractional differencing in Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) helps balance non-stationarity and persistence, but its linear structure limits its ability to capture nonlinear dynamics. Deep neural networks can model nonlinear patterns, but usually require large training samples and do not explicitly encode statistical long memory. Echo State Networks (ESNs), a widely used reservoir computing framework, are attractive in this setting because they retain nonlinear recurrent dynamics while training only a simple readout, making them suitable for data-scarce scenarios. However, standard ESNs lack long-term memory from a time-series perspective. This study proposes a long-memory reservoir computing framework that integrates dedicated long-memory and short-memory ESN reservoirs with a ridge-regression readout. We introduce two variants: Fractional ESN (fESN), which incorporates fractional-differencing dynamics into the reservoir to encode long-range dependence directly, and Wavelet ESN (wESN), which extracts stable low-frequency components through wavelet smoothing before modeling them with a memory-aware reservoir. We establish theoretical guarantees for closed-loop reservoir dynamics, showing that standard ESNs induce short-memory processes under mild conditions, whereas the proposed long-memory reservoirs generate polynomially decaying dependence consistent with statistical long memory. Across multiple dengue datasets and forecasting horizons, fESN and wESN outperform statistical and deep learning baselines. Combining conformal prediction with fESN and wESN provides distribution-free calibrated uncertainty intervals.
R. Goswami, Shinjini Paul, P. Ghosh et al.· 0 citations
Accurate multi-week dengue forecasting supports timely vector-control interventions, outbreak preparedness, and healthcare resource allocation. However, newly established surveillance systems often lack the historical data needed to train reliable neural forecasting models. Although pretrained time-series models offer promising zero-shot forecasts, their cross-domain training may not capture local epidemiological dynamics. We propose TREA-Net, a Transferable Residual Epidemiological Adaptation Network for dengue forecasting under limited data. TREA-Net augments neural forecasting backbones with projections from an Environmental Time-Series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and learns a lightweight gated residual correction transferable from data-rich to data-scarce regions. Its node-invariant design accommodates surveillance systems with different numbers of locations, while target adaptation requires learning only two global parameters. We transfer knowledge from long-running dengue surveillance in Colombia and Nicaragua to 8-week-ahead forecasting in Mexico and Malaysia using only 78 or 104 weeks of target data. Across five neural backbones and ten transfer settings, TREA-Net improves the corresponding backbone in 9 out of 10 settings, with statistically significant gains. When integrated with TiRex, a foundation model for forecasting, it achieves the lowest mean absolute error across all target datasets. Conformal prediction further maintains empirical coverage while reducing 8-week prediction-interval width by 29.6% in Mexico. These results demonstrate TREA-Net's potential as a lightweight and portable early-warning framework for health agencies with limited surveillance data.
Inesh Shukla, Madhurima Panja, Tanujit Chakraborty et al.· 0 citations