Toshiya Arakawa

Leakage-safe weekly risk mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in domestic poultry in Japan using open outbreak, meteorological, and geospatial data.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in domestic poultry require timely surveillance, but national-scale prediction is challenging because events are rare, spatially heterogeneous, and influenced by seasonal and environmental conditions. We developed a leakage-safe weekly risk-mapping framework for poultr...