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Author

Ulrich Hounyo

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Preprint Aug 2026

Supervised Mixed-Frequency Learning for Macro-Financial Forecasting When Factors are Weak

Factor-MIDAS regressions forecast a low-frequency target by extracting common factors from a large panel of high-frequency predictors via principal component analysis (PCA). While PCA mitigates the curse of dimensionality, it relies on factor pervasiveness, an assumption often violated when factors are weak, as is comm...

Ulrich Hounyo, Zhen-Dong Li · 0 citations
Preprint Oct 2026

Bootstrap Inference with a Randomly Assigned Regressor: Covariance Filtering and the Limits of Marginal Resampling

Random assignment can make ordinary least squares (OLS) inference insensitive to outcome dependence, yet iid resampling can still fail because assignment and resampling need not remove the same covariance terms. With binary treatment, the iid variance target differs from the sampling variance by exactly minus aggregate...

Ulrich Hounyo, Jungbin Hwang · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Distributional Difference-in-Differences: Aggregation Before or After Quantile Inversion?

Staggered distributional difference-in-differences produces cohort-specific potential-outcome distributions, but applied work typically wants one overall quantile treatment effect. Two natural summaries---averaging cohort quantile treatment effects (QTTs) and mixing cohort distributions before inversion---use the same...

Ulrich Hounyo · 0 citations
Preprint Aug 2026

Identification and Information after Nuisance Projection

Empirical work often removes fixed effects, latent factors, or high-dimensional controls before estimating structural relationships. These transformations reduce confounding but may also remove identifying variation. We study linear panel IV after one equation-compatible nuisance projection under two-way dependence. Th...

Ulrich Hounyo · 0 citations
Preprint Jul 2026

Specification Testing for Dyadic Regression Models

This paper develops omnibus specification tests for linear conditional-mean models with undirected dyadic data. We establish a uniform projection theorem that reduces the dyadic process to its latent first-order node projections under shared-node dependence. We then show that a raw first-order node-multiplier bootstrap...

Ulrich Hounyo, Jiahao Lin, Xiao-Jun Song · 0 citations

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