Author

V. Lucarini

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Preprint Sep 2026

Ruelle--Pollicott Theory for Metastable Systems: A Unified Framework for Tipping Transitions

Tipping points---abrupt, potentially irreversible reorganizations of a system's statistical state---are commonly anticipated through critical slowing down: recovery slows, autocorrelation and variance rise, and spectra redden. This paradigm is powerful near simple equilibrium bifurcations but is not a general theory fo...

M. Chekroun, V. Lucarini · 1 citation

Preprint Aug 2026

Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping

Abrupt transitions in complex systems are often preceded by early warning signals. However, most indicators rely on the notion of critical slowing down and do not generally extend to rate-induced tipping where transitions can occur without local loss of stability. This is problematic in stochastic, nonautonomous system...

J. Nathaniel, C. Roesch, Derek DeSantis et al. · 0 citations

Preprint Sep 2026

Linear Response Theory for Jump-Driven Stochastic Systems: Transient Statistics and Escape Dynamics

In this paper, we develop a linear response theory for a class of stochastic differential equations driven by jump processes. We investigate the response of the system to small time-dependent perturbations from three complementary perspectives: probability density functions, mean exit times, and escape probabilities. B...

Qing-Yan Meng, Jin-Qiao Duan, V. Lucarini · 0 citations