Preprint
Oct 2026
From trends to optimized forecasts: Quantifying the skill and advancing the utility of dynamics-based early warnings for tipping events
In this paper we explore and extend the state of the art for understanding the skill and utility of early warnings of critical transitions (tipping points) in forced nonlinear systems. We highlight some of the challenges and opportunities of transforming estimates of a dynamics-based early warning system, based on tren...
F. du Plessis, V. Volodina, Chris A. Boulton et al.
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