Experimental Investigations and Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Failure in Masonry Buildings with Load-Bearing Walls
The aim of this study is to determine the reliability level (the probability of failure-free operation) of a masonry building with load-bearing walls based on the conducted experimental investigations. The objective of the study is to compare the obtained reliability and failure risk values with the corresponding values calculated using the results of the structural certification. In 2017–2018, and subsequently in 2023–2024, a comprehensive structural certification of the multi-apartment residential building stock was carried out for the first time in the city of Almaty. A total of 1609 multi-story masonry buildings with heights of two to four stories were identified. Based on the certification results, quantitative estimates of the prior and posterior probabilities of failure and reliability for masonry buildings were obtained for the first time. The recurrence of earthquakes was taken into account. The novelty of the study lies in the experimental investigation of a three-story masonry building of series 308. The dynamic excitation was generated by an inertial vibration machine installed on the floor slab. As the inertial load increased, the resonant vibration period changed by a factor of three. This indicates that the building underwent significantly nonlinear deformation. The structure sustained substantial damage. Using statistical simulation methods based on the experimental data, the prior probabilities of failure for masonry buildings were calculated. In this case, the seismic action was modeled as a non-stationary random process with the deterministic envelope proposed by F. F. Aptikaev. Probabilistic estimates of the reliability of masonry buildings were obtained from the certification results both with and without taking into account the recurrence of earthquakes. The obtained estimates of reliability and failure probability can be used to develop practical recommendations aimed at reducing risk and expected losses in the event of possible earthquakes. It is recommended that masonry buildings with load-bearing brick walls either be structurally strengthened or be demolished.