A Multi-stage Precision Stratification (MPS) Framework for Navigating Adjuvant Immunotherapy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Resection
Background: Recurrence rates following curative resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain persistently high, benefit from adjuvant immunotherapy varies substantially across patients, and the field currently lacks a standardized framework to characterize the postoperative host immune contexture. Purpose: To propose and validate a Multi-stage Precision Stratification (MPS) framework and evaluate its value in prognostic stratification and prediction of immunotherapy response. Methods: The Immune Health Index (IHI = S + R - E) integrating immune surveillance (S), immune exhaustion (E), and immune reserve (R) was constructed to define four immune phenotypes. Prognostic value was assessed in four public HCC cohorts (n=931) with single-cell transcriptomic validation (GSE140228, 61,690 cells); a blood-count-based clinical version cIHI_v8 was constructed in the Qinghai QPHCC cohort (n=490 survival analysis). Results: IHI was an independent protective prognostic factor in TCGA-LIHC (multivariate HR=0.795, P=0.034); four-cohort random-effects meta-analysis yielded HR=0.818 (95% CI: 0.696-0.961), I-squared=31.4%. QPHCC cIHI_v8 multivariate HR=0.452, HR=0.715 after ALBI adjustment; Bayesian evidence synthesis yielded BF_10=1280 for cIHI_v8 (>100 constitutes Decisive evidence), whereas the 4-cohort meta BF_10=2.19 (Anecdotal). Following NLP-based reverse stage derivation (n=490, achieving full AJCC/BCLC stage coverage from 0%), IHI remained significant after AJCC adjustment (HR=0.8642, P=0.000079), IHI provided positive incremental C-index across all stage-adjusted models; stratified analysis showed the strongest effect in early-stage (AJCC I-II: HR=0.8109, P<0.0001) and MVI-negative patients (HR=0.8538, P=0.0020). Bootstrap 1000x resampling: median HR=0.8646 (95% CI: 0.7985-0.9443), all iterations yielded HR<1. Conclusions: The MPS framework provides a mechanism-driven biological stratification tool for adjuvant immunotherapy in post-resection HCC, moving from "fixed-protocol extrapolation" to "immune contexture navigation."